Cost-of-ruling in Local Elections – The Case of Sweden
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4335/14.3.695-714(2016)Keywords:
cost-of-ruling, local elections, parties, SwedenAbstract
There is a cost-of-ruling effect for parties who are part of ruling coalitions I local multi-party elections. Results from the case of Sweden (based on 8,892 election results of parties in local elections 1998-2010) indicate that a party on average loses almost a quarter of its share of the votes after an election period in government. The results also indicate that this cost-of-ruling effect varies depending on the party’s prominence and its political company within the ruling coalition. The voters punish anti-establishment parties who enter into ruling coalitions especially hard.
References
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Söderlund, P. (2008) Retrospective Voting and Electoral Volatility: A Nordic Perspective, Scandinavian Political Studies, 31(2), pp. 217-240, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9477.2008.00203.x.
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van der Brug, W., van der EijK, C. & Franklin, M. (2007) The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countrie (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
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Bengtsson, Å., Hansen, K. M., Haroarson, H., Narud, H. M. & Oscarsson, H. (2013) The Nordic Voter. Myths of Exceptionalism (Colchester: ECPR Press).
Boyne, G. A., James, O., John, P. & Petrovsky, N. (2009) Democracy and Government Performance: Holding Incumbents Accountable in English Local Governments, Journal of Politics, 71(4), pp. 1273-1284, doi: 10.1017/S0022381609990089.
Bäck, H. (2005) Sweden: Party-Ruled Welfare Municipalities in Change (University of Barcelona: Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials (ICPS)).
Downs, A. (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper & Row).
Erlingsson, G. O., Loxbo, K. & Öhrvall, R. (2012) Anti-Immigrant Parties, Local Presence and Electoral Success, Local government studies, 38(6), pp. 817-839, doi: 10.1080/03003930.2012.740411.
Fiorina, M. P. (1981) Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven: Yale Univesity Press).
Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Paldam, M. (2000) Economic Voting: An Introduction, Electoral Studies, 19(2-3), pp. 113-121, DOI: 10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00042-6.
Martinussen, P. E. (2004) Government Performance and Political Accountability at Subnational Level: The Electoral Fate of Local Incumbents in Norway, Scandinavian Political Studies, 27(3), pp. 227-259, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9477.2004.00105.x.
Mueller, J. E. (1970) Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson, American Political Science Review, 64(1), pp. 18-34, doi: 10.2307/1955610.
Nannestad, P. & Paldam, M. (1997) The Grievance Asymmetry Revisited: A Micro Study of Economic Voting in Denmark,1986–1992, European Journal of Political Economy, 13(1), pp. 81-99, doi: 10.1016/S0176-2680(96)00034-1.
Narud, H. M. & Valen, H. (2008) Coalition Membership and Electoral Performance. In: Strøm, K., Müller, W. C. & Bergman, T. (eds.) Cabinets and Coalitions Bargaining. The Democratic Live Cycle in Western Europe (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
Oscarsson, H. & Holmberg, S. (2013) Nya svenska väljare (Stockholm: Norstedts Juridik).
Paldam, M., & Skott, P. (1995) A Rational-Voter Explanation of the Cost of ruling, Public Choice, 83(1-2), pp. 159-172, doi: 10.1007/BF01047690.
Powell, G. B. & Whitten, G. D. (1993) A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting – Taking Account of the Political Context, American Journal of Political Science, 37(2), 391-414, doi: 10.2307/2111378.
Robertson, D. (1976) A theory of party competition (London: Wiley).
Soroka, S. N. (2014) Negativity in Democratic Politics. Causes and Consequences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Stevenson, R. T. (2002) The Cost of Ruling, Cabinet Duration, and the ‘Median-Gap’ Model, Public Choice, 113(1-2), pp. 157-178, doi: 10.1023/a:1020351406757.
Söderlund, P. (2008) Retrospective Voting and Electoral Volatility: A Nordic Perspective, Scandinavian Political Studies, 31(2), pp. 217-240, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9477.2008.00203.x.
Tillman, E. R. & Park, B. (2009) Do Voters Reward and Punish Governments for Changes in Income Taxes?, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 19(3), pp. 313-331, doi: 10.1080/17457280903074169.
van der Brug, W., van der EijK, C. & Franklin, M. (2007) The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countrie (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Van Spanje, J. (2011) Keeping the Rascals in: Anti-Political-Establishment Parties and Their Cost of Governing in Established Democracies, European Journal of Political Research, 50(5), pp. 609-635, doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01984.x.</span></p>
Published
2016-08-01
Issue
Section
Conference Paper (Annual Conference 2020)
